This posting initially started off as a discussion on the "
Yahoo Computer Business group" by Hank Cranmore from
http://www.mobitech4u.com/corporateservices.html . The discussion was surrounding cloud commuting and the damaging effects it will soon have on most computer technicians businesses. This is due in part to how affordable it is to run your small business virtually from the cloud and drastically reduce the need for support contracts or better yet on site technical support.
Technicians are people skilled in a particular area. They serve their
purpose in the strategic sense of demand and need until eventually, as
with all things like this before, down thru history, technology replaces
the technician.
Let me repeat that,
"Technology replaces the technicians".
To make it worse, technicians are historically weak during periods of
economic downturns or other disasters that destabilize their ability to
continue to do what they do in the face of a more efficient and cheaper
competitor.
Here are some favorite examples of mine from history of when technology
replaces technicians in the past.
Example #1 - Spinning thread. In today's terminology a person who is
skilled at spinning fibers by hand into thread or yarn would be labeled a
Spinning Tech. They were replaced by a series of rapidly evolving
technology. But not to fear, those that did not starve to death got jobs
by the thousands working 12 hour shifts tending to the machines of the
textile factories that replaced them.
Example #2 - Computer. Not our modern day computers, but people who in a
time of great illiteracy could perform math computations with great
skill. The word computer has existed since at least 300 AD. Up until the
point in time they were replaced by machines, human computers were
employed wide and far. They were the first computer techs. The first
computer business was similar to a CPA but was not limited to money. A
business could send a batch of calculations to the corner computer shop
and it would be processed by hand, by computer techs into final numbers.
One of the largest calculations in history processed by human computers
was 21,000 pages long and took 7 years to complete. Something had to
change. The first computer techs were put out of business by machines
set in motion by Charles Babbage. Not sure what happen to those techs,
but it was just in time for WW I, the great depression labor camps
(CCC), WW II and the growth of Corporations.
What will replace the computer tech? Technology!
Ever hear of a calculator tech lately? Nope!
The calculator on my desk is cheap, disposable and now that I think of
it, I dont even need to change the battery. It could run forever! If I
break it, I replace it. All I need to do is to buy it and operate it.
If I did break it and did not have time to go buy another one, I would
just turn to a virtual calculator on my computer or a calculator app out
on the internet, or "The Cloud".
But what if that little calculator could also be any business machine I
needed it to be? An internet interface?
The ultimate end of computer techs will be the "Walmart" scenario. When
replacing your internet interface is as cheap and easy as going to the
corner Walmart, picking the color and style of your choice and paying
less than a new shirt to replace the shirt you lost as a computer tech.
Prior to that, as the work and demand goes away, former techs will work
by the thousands for tech mills such as central repair depots, remote
support centers and
Onforce type dispatch services. Again awaiting the
final "Walmart" stage.
Freelance techs can evolve into Technology Consultants and then
Technology Consultants can evolve into Business Consultants.
Eventually, virtual hardware and software activation cards hanging on
hooks at Walmart like gift cards will replace most technology
consultants and then preconfigured activation "suites/packages" cards
will threaten most business consultants.
But do not worry. History has proven that techs will be taken care of
one way or the other after they are replaced.
Independence? Many weavers and spinners enjoyed great independence while
it lasted. When it ended, it was bad. Ironically, it was only when
weavers were without work did the last "die hards" focus on becoming
experts at marketing and sales as a last resort to bring in more
business. Eventually the need to support a family forced them to join
the ranks of employees again.
So bottom line,
technology replaces technicians.